Werner Schulz
In
Growing Fear of a Perilous Autumn, Lukashenko Seems Willing to Use any Means
A round table
for Belarus?
A wonderful idea. Who wouldn’t like to see the estate of an Eastern dictator be
set in order at history’s most famous piece of furniture? But the rounds for
hope are nonexistent when the suggestion comes from Alexander Lukashenko, the
despot in power for the last 17 years.
Since first
becoming a political institution, the round table has symbolised the approach
of bringing conflicting interest groups together to participate as equal
partners in a dialogue and to identify solutions that all participants can
support. Who would claim to seriously believe that this is truly Lukashenko’s
goal?
Who would
moderate such a dialogue, and who should take part? The Belarusian opposition,
whose leading figures are in jail or have fled the country? Russia or the EU? No one could
believe this proposal was sincere. It is more likely an attempt to ring in
another round of the “see-saw policy” between Russia
and the EU, a favourite method of the Belarus head of state to safeguard
his own power and spoils, as the smirking third player at the table.
The air is
getting thin up around Lukashenko, once an ordinary kolkhoz director. He began
his battle for survival long since.
Raging and ever less predictable, he has struck fear in the hearts of
many, not least his own people. What might Lukashenko yet do in an attempt to
control the simmering discontent and avoid economic ruin and the forced sale of
assets?
Lukashenko’s
motivation is revealed by his most recent proposal to create a rapid reaction
force to prevent coups d’état within the CSTO, the post-Soviet military
alliance. Although Lukashenko, unlike his close friend Gaddafi, does not yet
have armed rebels to fear, there is a growing dread in Eastern
Europe of catching the revolution virus from Arab countries.
Recent military exercises undertaken by the alliance to practice dealing with
violent conflicts reveal this just as clearly as do statements by leading
politicians within the alliance.
Nobody knows
whether it will be a matter of weeks, months or even years before the
Lukashenko era is a thing of the past. It feels, at least, as though we have
already entered the aftermath of that period. The Belarusian opposition would
be well advised to put old intrigues to
rest and forge strong alliances. Only united will it succeed in creating new
approaches and developing a serious alternative to the authoritarian social
system in Belarus.
Europe will play its part in
helping Belarusian civil society along this path. A lively exchange about the
issue of how and under what conditions assistance can best be provided is
already underway with representatives of that civil society and within the
European institutions.
However, we also
seek the involvement of other important actors. Although the chairs for the
Belarusian parliamentarians remained empty, members of the parliaments of the
other Eastern Neighbourhood countries and of the European Parliament addressed
the political situation in Belarus at the first working meeting of EURONEST on
14/15 September 2011.
We must, too,
call on Russia to live up to
its responsibility, for one thing is certain: without Russia, there will be no change of course in Belarus,
in any direction. I spoke about this in Warsaw
on 19/20 September 2011 with our Russian colleagues on the EU Russia
Parliamentary Cooperation Committee. The primary mutual concern must be the
prevention of an escalation of violence, another wave of mass arrests and
bloodshed.
Europe should be more
courageous in providing more vocal and more passionate assurance of its
solidarity and support. At issue is no more and no less than sending a clear
signal that the Belarusian people can count on Europe’s
support in dealing with the current situation.
Werner Schulz was born in 1950 in Zwickau. He studied food chemistry and technology at the Humbolt University,
Berlin. In 1974 he became an assistant lecturer at the Humbolt but was
dismissed without notice in 1980 for protesting about the Soviet Union’s
invasion of Afghanistan.
From 1968 he was active in various opposition groups in the GDR. In 1989, he
was one of the founders of Neues Forum. In 1990 he was successful in the first
free elections to the Volkskammer. From October 1990 to October 2005, Schulz
was a Member of the Bundestag for Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, for whom he acted as
spokesman, parliamentary leader and economic spokesman. Since June 2009 he has
been a Member of the European Parliament.